{"F": {"ts_code": "605080.SH", "name": "浙江自然", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "文娱用品", "sw3": "娱乐用品", "ind": "文娱用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210506", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.17, "pe_ttm": 19.7332, "pb": 1.4161, "dv_ttm": 0.6126, "total_mv": 326486.6164, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.7, 38.8, 36.6, 33.8, 33.7, 32.3], "rev_series": [5.8, 8.4, 9.5, 8.2, 10.0, 10.2], "np_series": [1.6, 2.2, 2.1, 1.3, 1.9, 1.9], "roe_series": [26.8, 19.1, 12.5, 7.2, 9.5, 9.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.6, "np_ttm": 1.7, "ocf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 6.7, "gm_median": 33.8, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -4.1, "npm_median": 18.9, "roe_median": 9.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.9, "fix_assets": 7.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.42, "capex_dep": 3.24, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 12.1, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 10.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.7, "np_cagr3": -3.5, "rev_yoy": 5.5, "np_yoy": -17.8, "np_vol": 29.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 75.0, "earn_yield": 5.1, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 15.7, "fwd_pe2": 13.2, "fwd_g1": 25.0, "fwd_g2": 20.0, "peg": 0.78, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["销售商品", 50.0], ["产品", 50.0]], "ret_prev_year": -1.3, "ret_prev2_year": 11.7, "ret_ytd": 1.4, "ret_pivot": 65.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 15.3, "ret_60": 12.8, "ret_120": -3.5, "ret_250": -21.2, "mdd_250": -34.5, "vol_250": 36.4, "pos_52w": 80.1}, "S": {"duration": 39, "pricing": 54, "hard": 48, "bondness": 25}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 19.7 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 33.8%、固定资产占比 30%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.8%),硬资产占比 30%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 6.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.8%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 3.24 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.7 倍 粗算,约 75%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 15% / 13% / -4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「文娱用品」20 家中位:PE 47.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.8% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "浙江自然:PE 比行业中位低 27.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.4个百分点。"]}}