{"F": {"ts_code": "605077.SH", "name": "华康股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "食品及饲料添加剂", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210209", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.23, "pe_ttm": 31.3137, "pb": 1.1398, "dv_ttm": 4.4575, "total_mv": 339936.3674, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.0, 23.0, 22.9, 24.2, 21.8, 15.0], "rev_series": [13.2, 15.9, 22.0, 27.8, 28.1, 41.9], "np_series": [3.1, 2.4, 3.2, 3.7, 2.7, 2.0], "roe_series": [37.8, 14.0, 12.5, 12.9, 8.5, 6.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 48.0, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 4.5, "fcf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_yield": -4.5, "ocf_yield": 13.2, "gm_median": 22.9, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -12.0, "npm_median": 13.4, "roe_median": 12.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.0, "fix_assets": 38.1, "goodwill_ratio": 4.4, "pb_calc": 1.07, "capex_dep": 1.83, "interest_debt": 34.3, "debt_ebitda": 5.7, "debt_ratio": 59.9, "debt_mv": 101.0, "payout": 55.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 23.9, "np_cagr3": -14.4, "rev_yoy": 33.0, "np_yoy": -68.6, "np_vol": 25.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["液体糖、醇及其他产品", 51.0], ["晶体糖醇产品", 44.0], ["其他主营业务", 3.0], ["其他", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.5, "ret_prev2_year": -9.2, "ret_ytd": -22.4, "ret_pivot": 0.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.5, "ret_60": -4.4, "ret_120": -28.6, "ret_250": -39.9, "mdd_250": -47.9, "vol_250": 35.4, "pos_52w": 58.2}, "S": {"duration": 54, "pricing": 45, "hard": 77, "bondness": 61}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 56%、股息率 4.5%、营收 3 年复合 23.9%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.7 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 22.9%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.5%(经营现金流/市值 13.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.9%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 1.83 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 31.3 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -40%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -4% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "华康股份:PE 比行业中位低 4.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.5个百分点。"]}}