{"F": {"ts_code": "605066.SH", "name": "天正电气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "配电设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200807", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.0, "pe_ttm": 79.4363, "pb": 2.0776, "dv_ttm": 1.4352, "total_mv": 351703.17, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.8, 23.8, 26.2, 26.5, 25.4, 24.0], "rev_series": [24.7, 29.2, 24.4, 28.8, 29.2, 28.1], "np_series": [2.5, 1.1, 0.5, 1.6, 1.2, 0.9], "roe_series": [19.3, 6.3, 2.6, 9.0, 6.7, 5.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 27.7, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 3.4, "gm_median": 25.4, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -1.6, "npm_median": 3.7, "roe_median": 6.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.8, "fix_assets": 5.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.08, "capex_dep": 1.35, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 45.0, "debt_mv": 0.8, "payout": 62.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 4.9, "np_cagr3": 26.9, "rev_yoy": -3.1, "np_yoy": -58.6, "np_vol": 120.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["配电电器", 44.0], ["终端电器", 22.0], ["控制电器", 11.0], ["电源电器", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 27.0, "ret_prev2_year": -15.3, "ret_ytd": -2.8, "ret_pivot": 52.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.1, "ret_60": 12.2, "ret_120": -18.9, "ret_250": -13.6, "mdd_250": -33.3, "vol_250": 35.7, "pos_52w": 77.4}, "S": {"duration": 86, "pricing": 53, "hard": 28, "bondness": 46}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 79.4 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 18%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 25.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 3.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.4%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 1.35 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 79.4 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 12% / -19%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "天正电气:PE 比行业中位高 35.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.9个百分点。"]}}