{"F": {"ts_code": "605060.SH", "name": "联德股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "其他通用设备", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210301", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 40.98, "pe_ttm": 38.2415, "pb": 3.7913, "dv_ttm": 0.8539, "total_mv": 985905.036, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.2, 34.3, 36.5, 37.4, 34.4, 36.3], "rev_series": [6.7, 8.0, 11.2, 12.1, 11.0, 12.5], "np_series": [1.7, 1.6, 2.5, 2.5, 1.9, 2.3], "roe_series": [19.5, 11.4, 12.6, 11.7, 8.2, 9.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.0, "np_ttm": 2.6, "ocf_ttm": 3.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 0.5, "ocf_yield": 3.6, "gm_median": 36.3, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -6.7, "npm_median": 20.1, "roe_median": 11.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.1, "fix_assets": 12.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 3.79, "capex_dep": 2.9, "interest_debt": 1.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 16.1, "debt_mv": 1.3, "payout": 36.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.8, "np_cagr3": -2.8, "rev_yoy": 24.6, "np_yoy": 27.6, "np_vol": 26.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.6, "consensus_n": 15, "fwd_pe": 29.9, "fwd_pe2": 21.6, "fwd_g1": 28.0, "fwd_g2": 39.0, "peg": 0.77, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["压缩机零部件", 25.0], ["压缩机部件", 25.0], ["工程机械零部件", 20.0], ["工程机械部件", 20.0]], "ret_prev_year": 118.3, "ret_prev2_year": -5.0, "ret_ytd": 11.9, "ret_pivot": 273.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.0, "ret_60": -11.6, "ret_120": -26.2, "ret_250": 54.8, "mdd_250": -53.2, "vol_250": 72.8, "pos_52w": 56.4}, "S": {"duration": 62, "pricing": 56, "hard": 63, "bondness": 35}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["成长兑现", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 12 亿,占总资产 39%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 36.3%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.7 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 0.5%,股息率 0.9%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 87%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 39%)和定价权(毛利率 36.3% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.5%(经营现金流/市值 3.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.3%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 2.90 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 38.2 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 55%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 73%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -12% / -26%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年已经跑过,加仓看信号。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "联德股份:PE 比行业中位低 12.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.3个百分点。"]}}