{"F": {"ts_code": "605055.SH", "name": "迎丰股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "纺织制造", "sw3": "印染", "ind": "纺织制造", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210129", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.46, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.3216, "dv_ttm": 0.6168, "total_mv": 416240.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.3, 17.5, 8.3, 15.1, 15.7, 10.9], "rev_series": [7.8, 12.6, 13.7, 15.5, 15.8, 15.9], "np_series": [0.8, 0.8, -0.5, 0.4, 0.4, -0.5], "roe_series": [11.5, 8.8, -4.2, 3.3, 3.8, -5.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.1, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": 6.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_yield": 4.0, "ocf_yield": 15.4, "gm_median": 15.1, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": -15.0, "npm_median": 2.3, "roe_median": 3.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 59.7, "fix_assets": 18.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.32, "capex_dep": 2.41, "interest_debt": 14.0, "debt_ebitda": 6.7, "debt_ratio": 68.8, "debt_mv": 33.6, "payout": 67.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 5.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 16.0, "np_yoy": 41.9, "np_vol": 141.3, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["针织面料印染", 17.0], ["针织", 17.0], ["梭织面料印染", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 101.0, "ret_prev2_year": -31.1, "ret_ytd": -2.0, "ret_pivot": 131.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.3, "ret_60": -14.4, "ret_120": 0.7, "ret_250": 23.0, "mdd_250": -45.8, "vol_250": 56.2, "pos_52w": 63.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 96, "bondness": 57}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 60%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 6.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 60%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.1%,稳定度 78%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.0%(经营现金流/市值 15.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.1%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 60%,资本开支/折旧 2.41 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 23%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -14% / 1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「纺织制造」33 家中位:PE 23.1 / 股息率 1.3% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 46%。", "迎丰股份:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 29.6个百分点。"]}}