{"F": {"ts_code": "605050.SH", "name": "福然德", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "原材料供应链服务", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200924", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.48, "pe_ttm": 13.5095, "pb": 1.1543, "dv_ttm": 3.8044, "total_mv": 516485.0016, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [7.2, 5.5, 4.9, 6.9, 5.1, 5.9], "rev_series": [66.9, 99.5, 103.4, 97.6, 112.8, 117.6], "np_series": [3.1, 3.4, 3.0, 4.2, 3.2, 3.8], "roe_series": [13.0, 11.2, 8.6, 10.2, 7.4, 8.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 119.0, "np_ttm": 3.8, "ocf_ttm": -10.7, "fcf_ttm": -13.4, "fcf_yield": -25.9, "ocf_yield": -20.8, "gm_median": 5.5, "gm_std": 0.7, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -2.2, "npm_median": 3.3, "roe_median": 8.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.8, "fix_assets": 14.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.15, "capex_dep": 2.34, "interest_debt": 24.8, "debt_ebitda": 3.6, "debt_ratio": 50.4, "debt_mv": 48.0, "payout": 78.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.4, "np_cagr3": 7.2, "rev_yoy": 2.7, "np_yoy": 4.5, "np_vol": 21.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 63.0, "earn_yield": 7.4, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 12.2, "fwd_pe2": 11.1, "fwd_g1": 11.0, "fwd_g2": 9.0, "peg": 1.36, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["加工配送", 32.0], ["非加工配送", 18.0], ["来料加工及其他", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 46.0, "ret_prev2_year": -19.7, "ret_ytd": -19.8, "ret_pivot": 39.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.9, "ret_60": 4.6, "ret_120": -15.8, "ret_250": -31.7, "mdd_250": -57.5, "vol_250": 40.8, "pos_52w": 48.6}, "S": {"duration": 29, "pricing": 39, "hard": 25, "bondness": 77}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["现金流红利", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:近 5 年净利润增速波动 21个百分点,营收 3 年复合 4.4%,利润在窄区间里波动。", "分红率 79%、股息率 3.8%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:有息负债 25 亿,有息负债/EBITDA 3.6 倍,资产负债率 50%。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 3.8% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 13.5 倍 倒过来就是 7.4% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 16%,毛利率近 5 年中位 5.5%。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -25.9%(经营现金流/市值 -20.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 5.5%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 2.34 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.5 倍 粗算,约 63%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -32%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 49%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / 5% / -16%。 债券代理股的波动应该低;波动偏高,市场没完全把它当债。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "福然德:PE 比行业中位低 7.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.8个百分点。"]}}