{"F": {"ts_code": "605033.SH", "name": "美邦股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "农药", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210916", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.98, "pe_ttm": 42.4767, "pb": 2.2689, "dv_ttm": 0.7508, "total_mv": 270129.6, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.3, 38.3, 42.7, 34.2, 28.5, 34.2], "rev_series": [5.7, 8.4, 9.1, 7.0, 8.9, 9.1], "np_series": [0.8, 1.3, 1.5, 0.6, 0.4, 0.5], "roe_series": [19.2, 17.8, 14.1, 5.2, 3.3, 4.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.8, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -1.2, "ocf_yield": 4.2, "gm_median": 34.2, "gm_std": 4.7, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": 6.4, "npm_median": 8.2, "roe_median": 5.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.8, "fix_assets": 7.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.27, "capex_dep": 4.0, "interest_debt": 1.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 35.8, "debt_mv": 5.8, "payout": 41.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 0.2, "np_cagr3": -30.5, "rev_yoy": 14.3, "np_yoy": 41.3, "np_vol": 44.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["杀菌剂", 57.0], ["杀虫剂", 24.0], ["其他主营业务", 10.0], ["其他", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 69.6, "ret_prev2_year": -32.7, "ret_ytd": 0.0, "ret_pivot": 104.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.1, "ret_60": 7.4, "ret_120": -14.2, "ret_250": -17.2, "mdd_250": -48.8, "vol_250": 45.5, "pos_52w": 63.5}, "S": {"duration": 65, "pricing": 58, "hard": 65, "bondness": 43}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 8 亿,占总资产 41%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 34.2%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.4 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -1.2%,股息率 0.8%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 88%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 41%)和定价权(毛利率 34.2% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.2%(经营现金流/市值 4.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.2%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 41%,资本开支/折旧 4.00 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 42.5 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -17%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 7% / -14%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "美邦股份:PE 比行业中位高 21.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.2个百分点。"]}}