{"F": {"ts_code": "605020.SH", "name": "永和股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "氟化工", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210709", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 32.96, "pe_ttm": 20.9629, "pb": 2.7882, "dv_ttm": 1.3648, "total_mv": 1683658.4352, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.0, 23.6, 18.5, 14.6, 17.7, 25.1], "rev_series": [19.5, 29.0, 38.0, 43.7, 46.1, 52.1], "np_series": [1.0, 2.8, 3.0, 1.8, 2.5, 5.6], "roe_series": [8.0, 16.5, 13.2, 7.1, 9.2, 13.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 58.9, "np_ttm": 8.0, "ocf_ttm": 7.7, "fcf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_yield": -0.6, "ocf_yield": 4.6, "gm_median": 18.5, "gm_std": 3.9, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": -2.6, "npm_median": 7.9, "roe_median": 13.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 54.1, "fix_assets": 48.8, "goodwill_ratio": 1.2, "pb_calc": 2.79, "capex_dep": 2.07, "interest_debt": 15.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 32.9, "debt_mv": 9.3, "payout": 37.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 11.0, "np_cagr3": 23.2, "rev_yoy": 28.2, "np_yoy": 89.0, "np_vol": 77.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.8, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 16.6, "fwd_pe2": 13.6, "fwd_g1": 26.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 0.75, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["氟碳化学品", 32.0], ["含氟高分子材料及其单体", 26.0], ["含氟高分子材料", 26.0], ["氟化工原料", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 34.7, "ret_prev2_year": -18.8, "ret_ytd": 24.7, "ret_pivot": 133.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.3, "ret_60": -0.9, "ret_120": 18.0, "ret_250": 3.3, "mdd_250": -36.0, "vol_250": 47.7, "pos_52w": 68.1}, "S": {"duration": 41, "pricing": 42, "hard": 87, "bondness": 33}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 54%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 54%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.5%,稳定度 79%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.6%(经营现金流/市值 4.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.5%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 54%,资本开支/折旧 2.07 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.0 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 3%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -1% / 18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "永和股份:PE 比行业中位低 14.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.6个百分点。"]}}