{"F": {"ts_code": "605018.SH", "name": "长华集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "其他汽车零部件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200929", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.81, "pe_ttm": 69.6779, "pb": 2.009, "dv_ttm": 1.265, "total_mv": 555147.7098, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.3, 21.7, 15.0, 12.8, 13.5, 13.6], "rev_series": [14.5, 15.0, 18.4, 24.2, 22.1, 21.6], "np_series": [2.0, 1.6, 1.1, 1.1, 1.1, 1.0], "roe_series": [12.0, 7.9, 4.7, 4.1, 4.2, 3.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.8, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.3, "ocf_yield": 3.4, "gm_median": 13.6, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.76, "gm_chg_2022": -9.3, "npm_median": 5.2, "roe_median": 4.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.8, "fix_assets": 13.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.01, "capex_dep": 1.25, "interest_debt": 1.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 19.7, "debt_mv": 3.4, "payout": 75.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.5, "np_cagr3": -4.5, "rev_yoy": -8.2, "np_yoy": -46.7, "np_vol": 12.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 40.7, "fwd_pe2": 33.7, "fwd_g1": 71.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 1.94, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["汽车零部件收入", 46.0], ["其他业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 34.8, "ret_prev2_year": -19.8, "ret_ytd": 3.3, "ret_pivot": 73.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.3, "ret_60": -28.0, "ret_120": 2.6, "ret_250": -8.4, "mdd_250": -44.8, "vol_250": 42.9, "pos_52w": 60.2}, "S": {"duration": 82, "pricing": 37, "hard": 62, "bondness": 51}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 39%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 39%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.6%,稳定度 76%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.3%(经营现金流/市值 3.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.6%,稳定度 76%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 1.25 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 69.7 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -28% / 3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "长华集团:PE 比行业中位高 39.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.3个百分点。"]}}