{"F": {"ts_code": "605016.SH", "name": "百龙创园", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "食品及饲料添加剂", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210421", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 22.25, "pe_ttm": 22.8265, "pb": 4.4442, "dv_ttm": 1.191, "total_mv": 934527.3675, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.8, 27.8, 31.7, 32.7, 33.7, 41.8], "rev_series": [5.0, 6.5, 7.2, 8.7, 11.5, 13.8], "np_series": [1.0, 1.0, 1.5, 1.9, 2.5, 3.7], "roe_series": [14.8, 11.0, 11.8, 13.5, 15.4, 20.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.9, "np_ttm": 4.1, "ocf_ttm": 3.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.1, "ocf_yield": 4.2, "gm_median": 32.7, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -1.1, "npm_median": 21.3, "roe_median": 13.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 47.5, "fix_assets": 13.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.44, "capex_dep": 4.1, "interest_debt": 4.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 26.6, "debt_mv": 4.9, "payout": 30.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 24.1, "np_cagr3": 34.7, "rev_yoy": 17.0, "np_yoy": 24.1, "np_vol": 14.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.4, "consensus_n": 15, "fwd_pe": 19.4, "fwd_pe2": 14.9, "fwd_g1": 18.0, "fwd_g2": 31.0, "peg": 0.63, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 69.8, "ret_prev2_year": -22.3, "ret_ytd": 3.8, "ret_pivot": 88.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.3, "ret_60": -9.0, "ret_120": -7.8, "ret_250": 7.4, "mdd_250": -30.5, "vol_250": 42.6, "pos_52w": 78.7}, "S": {"duration": 43, "pricing": 53, "hard": 76, "bondness": 20}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["成长兑现", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 14 亿,占总资产 48%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 32.7%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 0.1%,股息率 1.2%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 78%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 48%)和定价权(毛利率 32.7% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.1%(经营现金流/市值 4.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.7%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 4.10 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.8 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 7%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -9% / -8%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "百龙创园:PE 比行业中位低 13.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.0个百分点。"]}}