{"F": {"ts_code": "605011.SH", "name": "杭州热电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "热力服务", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210630", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.15, "pe_ttm": 39.9248, "pb": 2.7589, "dv_ttm": 0.9329, "total_mv": 686171.5, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.4, 12.8, 9.3, 12.2, 10.5, 11.4], "rev_series": [20.9, 31.8, 36.3, 32.9, 35.4, 31.7], "np_series": [2.3, 2.3, 2.1, 2.1, 2.1, 1.9], "roe_series": [16.2, 13.6, 10.8, 10.0, 9.4, 7.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 32.8, "np_ttm": 1.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": -2.8, "fcf_yield": -4.1, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 11.4, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -9.1, "npm_median": 7.4, "roe_median": 10.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 57.8, "fix_assets": 25.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.76, "capex_dep": 2.99, "interest_debt": 8.4, "debt_ebitda": 2.6, "debt_ratio": 29.3, "debt_mv": 12.3, "payout": 30.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -4.4, "np_cagr3": -4.2, "rev_yoy": 7.5, "np_yoy": -13.3, "np_vol": 5.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["热电业务", 32.0], ["煤炭贸易", 30.0], ["煤炭业务", 30.0], ["其他主营业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.6, "ret_prev2_year": -14.1, "ret_ytd": -15.7, "ret_pivot": -12.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.2, "ret_60": -3.5, "ret_120": -18.6, "ret_250": -23.5, "mdd_250": -33.6, "vol_250": 35.5, "pos_52w": 73.6}, "S": {"duration": 63, "pricing": 41, "hard": 92, "bondness": 44}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 39.9 倍、股息率 0.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 11.4%、固定资产占比 58%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 58%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.4%,稳定度 89%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.4%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 58%,资本开支/折旧 2.99 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 39.9 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -4% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "杭州热电:PE 比行业中位高 12.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.9个百分点。"]}}