{"F": {"ts_code": "605009.SH", "name": "豪悦护理", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "美容护理", "sw2": "个护用品", "sw3": "生活用纸", "ind": "个护用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200911", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 24.94, "pe_ttm": 22.5873, "pb": 1.5894, "dv_ttm": 3.3939, "total_mv": 536104.005, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.9, 26.3, 23.2, 26.9, 27.9, 31.5], "rev_series": [25.9, 24.6, 28.0, 27.6, 29.3, 37.6], "np_series": [6.0, 3.6, 4.2, 4.4, 3.9, 2.3], "roe_series": [35.1, 12.5, 14.1, 14.1, 11.9, 6.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 39.6, "np_ttm": 2.4, "ocf_ttm": 6.6, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": 12.4, "gm_median": 26.9, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -13.8, "npm_median": 14.7, "roe_median": 12.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 45.4, "fix_assets": 24.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 1.59, "capex_dep": 3.45, "interest_debt": 1.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 37.8, "debt_mv": 3.5, "payout": 67.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 10.3, "np_cagr3": -18.1, "rev_yoy": 11.4, "np_yoy": 3.6, "np_vol": 22.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.4, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 18.5, "fwd_pe2": 15.6, "fwd_g1": 22.0, "fwd_g2": 19.0, "peg": 0.97, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["婴儿卫生用品", 40.0], ["成人失禁用品", 19.0], ["成人卫生用品", 19.0], ["其他收入", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.9, "ret_prev2_year": 10.1, "ret_ytd": -17.0, "ret_pivot": 6.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.7, "ret_60": 13.8, "ret_120": -13.5, "ret_250": -37.5, "mdd_250": -47.9, "vol_250": 27.4, "pos_52w": 62.3}, "S": {"duration": 43, "pricing": 49, "hard": 73, "bondness": 55}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 68%、股息率 3.4%、营收 3 年复合 10.3%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 45%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 26.9%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 12.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.9%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 45%,资本开支/折旧 3.45 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.6 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -38%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 14% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「个护用品」12 家中位:PE 25.1 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 28.2% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 70%。", "豪悦护理:PE 比行业中位低 2.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.6个百分点。"]}}