{"F": {"ts_code": "605008.SH", "name": "长鸿高科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "其他塑料制品", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200821", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.47, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.5327, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 870111.3528, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.8, 21.6, 16.5, 11.2, 9.2, 7.4], "rev_series": [13.0, 17.3, 23.7, 14.2, 36.3, 39.2], "np_series": [3.0, 1.8, 1.8, 1.0, 0.9, -0.1], "roe_series": [21.9, 10.3, 9.4, 4.7, 4.7, -0.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 36.3, "np_ttm": -0.7, "ocf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_ttm": -5.2, "fcf_yield": -6.0, "ocf_yield": -1.5, "gm_median": 11.2, "gm_std": 5.2, "gm_stab": 0.54, "gm_chg_2022": -15.3, "npm_median": 6.7, "roe_median": 4.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 55.8, "fix_assets": 38.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.53, "capex_dep": 1.84, "interest_debt": 31.2, "debt_ebitda": 11.5, "debt_ratio": 71.7, "debt_mv": 35.8, "payout": 206.7, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 18.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -16.1, "np_yoy": -3582.5, "np_vol": 39.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["PBT系列", 15.0], ["PBT", 15.0], ["苯乙烯类", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.5, "ret_prev2_year": -23.3, "ret_ytd": -5.6, "ret_pivot": 18.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 16.4, "ret_60": 15.2, "ret_120": 6.2, "ret_250": -14.0, "mdd_250": -43.8, "vol_250": 29.8, "pos_52w": 71.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 28, "hard": 89, "bondness": 52}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 56%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 11.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 11.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 56%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.2%,稳定度 54%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.0%(经营现金流/市值 -1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.2%,稳定度 54%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 56%,资本开支/折旧 1.84 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 16% / 15% / 6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "长鸿高科:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 23.9个百分点。"]}}