{"F": {"ts_code": "605007.SH", "name": "五洲特纸", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "造纸", "sw3": "特种纸", "ind": "造纸", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20201110", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.81, "pe_ttm": 19.9605, "pb": 1.9312, "dv_ttm": 1.0804, "total_mv": 704556.13, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.1, 17.3, 8.8, 9.6, 9.9, 7.9], "rev_series": [26.3, 36.9, 59.6, 65.2, 76.6, 88.8], "np_series": [3.4, 3.9, 2.1, 2.7, 3.6, 2.4], "roe_series": [25.1, 20.5, 9.5, 11.8, 12.2, 6.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 96.6, "np_ttm": 3.5, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": -21.2, "fcf_yield": -30.1, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 9.6, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.65, "gm_chg_2022": -14.3, "npm_median": 4.2, "roe_median": 11.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 66.5, "fix_assets": 95.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.85, "capex_dep": 4.55, "interest_debt": 85.5, "debt_ebitda": 7.9, "debt_ratio": 73.3, "debt_mv": 121.4, "payout": 31.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 14.2, "np_cagr3": 6.1, "rev_yoy": 18.8, "np_yoy": 89.0, "np_vol": 33.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 75.0, "earn_yield": 5.0, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 14.6, "fwd_pe2": 11.5, "fwd_g1": 37.0, "fwd_g2": 27.0, "peg": 0.54, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["工业包装材料系列", 27.0], ["日用消费材料系列", 26.0], ["食品包装材料系列", 18.0], ["食品包装材料", 18.0]], "ret_prev_year": 7.8, "ret_prev2_year": -12.1, "ret_ytd": 10.9, "ret_pivot": 32.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.3, "ret_60": 15.8, "ret_120": -9.9, "ret_250": 22.0, "mdd_250": -28.4, "vol_250": 43.2, "pos_52w": 84.8}, "S": {"duration": 39, "pricing": 31, "hard": 100, "bondness": 38}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 66%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 9.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 7.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 66%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 9.6%,稳定度 65%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -30.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.6%,稳定度 65%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 66%,资本开支/折旧 4.55 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.0 倍 粗算,约 75%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 22%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 85%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / 16% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「造纸」25 家中位:PE 21.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 13.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 33%。", "五洲特纸:PE 比行业中位低 1.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.6个百分点。"]}}