{"F": {"ts_code": "605006.SH", "name": "山东玻纤", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "玻璃玻纤", "sw3": "玻纤制造", "ind": "玻璃玻纤", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200903", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.67, "pe_ttm": 1356.5953, "pb": 3.1043, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 958833.1071, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.9, 36.7, 28.6, 10.4, 8.1, 15.4], "rev_series": [20.0, 27.5, 27.8, 22.0, 20.1, 24.8], "np_series": [1.7, 5.5, 5.4, 1.1, -1.0, -0.1], "roe_series": [11.0, 26.4, 20.6, 3.7, -3.7, -0.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.2, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 3.0, "fcf_ttm": -4.0, "fcf_yield": -4.2, "ocf_yield": 3.1, "gm_median": 15.4, "gm_std": 11.0, "gm_stab": 0.29, "gm_chg_2022": 0.7, "npm_median": 4.8, "roe_median": 3.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 63.7, "fix_assets": 50.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.09, "capex_dep": 1.45, "interest_debt": 34.1, "debt_ebitda": 5.6, "debt_ratio": 61.2, "debt_mv": 35.6, "payout": 28.9, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -3.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 38.2, "np_yoy": 234.9, "np_vol": 140.3, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["玻纤制品及其他玻纤纱-其他", 47.0], ["玻纤产品", 47.0], ["电力及热力产品", 7.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 16.1, "ret_prev2_year": -8.1, "ret_ytd": 101.0, "ret_pivot": 253.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.8, "ret_60": -34.1, "ret_120": 53.6, "ret_250": 73.8, "mdd_250": -53.3, "vol_250": 72.2, "pos_52w": 56.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 26, "hard": 100, "bondness": 45}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 64%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 5.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 64%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.4%,稳定度 29%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.2%(经营现金流/市值 3.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.4%,稳定度 29%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 64%,资本开支/折旧 1.45 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 1356.6 倍 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 74%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 72%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -34% / 54%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「玻璃玻纤」16 家中位:PE 68.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 22.1% / 固定资产占比 53% / 分红率 37%。", "山东玻纤:PE 比行业中位高 1288.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.5个百分点。"]}}