{"F": {"ts_code": "603999.SH", "name": "读者传媒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "出版", "sw3": "大众出版", "ind": "出版", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20151210", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.03, "pe_ttm": 43.8317, "pb": 1.6552, "dv_ttm": 0.7463, "total_mv": 347328.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.1, 16.8, 15.9, 18.0, 25.1, 27.1], "rev_series": [10.8, 12.2, 12.9, 12.9, 9.7, 9.0], "np_series": [0.7, 0.9, 0.9, 1.0, 0.6, 0.9], "roe_series": [4.3, 4.7, 4.6, 5.1, 3.2, 4.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.3, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 2.5, "ocf_yield": 3.1, "gm_median": 18.0, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.74, "gm_chg_2022": -3.2, "npm_median": 6.8, "roe_median": 4.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.0, "fix_assets": 1.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.66, "capex_dep": 1.44, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 20.3, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -11.2, "np_cagr3": -0.2, "rev_yoy": -18.8, "np_yoy": -16.2, "np_vol": 24.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["教材教辅", 33.0], ["一般图书", 8.0], ["期刊", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 15.0, "ret_prev2_year": -9.9, "ret_ytd": -13.7, "ret_pivot": 28.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.2, "ret_60": 12.0, "ret_120": -16.8, "ret_250": -11.4, "mdd_250": -43.9, "vol_250": 37.0, "pos_52w": 68.3}, "S": {"duration": 67, "pricing": 40, "hard": 10, "bondness": 35}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 43.8 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 18.0%、固定资产占比 6%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 18.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.5%(经营现金流/市值 3.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.0%,稳定度 74%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 1.44 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 43.8 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 12% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「出版」29 家中位:PE 32.6 / 股息率 2.2% / 毛利率 34.7% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 50%。", "读者传媒:PE 比行业中位高 11.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 16.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.7个百分点。"]}}