{"F": {"ts_code": "603997.SH", "name": "继峰股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "车身附件及饰件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150302", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.43, "pe_ttm": 21.8751, "pb": 2.6443, "dv_ttm": 0.9361, "total_mv": 1454198.7807, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.6, 14.1, 13.1, 14.8, 14.0, 16.1], "rev_series": [157.3, 168.3, 179.7, 215.7, 222.6, 227.8], "np_series": [-2.6, 1.3, -14.2, 2.0, -5.7, 4.5], "roe_series": [-5.9, 2.8, -35.0, 5.4, -13.0, 9.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 253.4, "np_ttm": 6.6, "ocf_ttm": 18.7, "fcf_ttm": 4.5, "fcf_yield": 3.1, "ocf_yield": 12.9, "gm_median": 14.1, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -0.5, "npm_median": 0.7, "roe_median": 2.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 22.0, "fix_assets": 53.8, "goodwill_ratio": 6.6, "pb_calc": 2.64, "capex_dep": 2.39, "interest_debt": 78.6, "debt_ebitda": 3.6, "debt_ratio": 76.2, "debt_mv": 54.0, "payout": 29.7, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 8.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 24.3, "np_yoy": 137.3, "np_vol": 535.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.6, "consensus_n": 17, "fwd_pe": 17.4, "fwd_pe2": 12.8, "fwd_g1": 26.0, "fwd_g2": 36.0, "peg": 0.48, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["GrammerAG集团分部", 30.0], ["继峰分部", 21.0], ["分部间抵销", -1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 21.6, "ret_prev2_year": -15.1, "ret_ytd": -17.1, "ret_pivot": -2.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.4, "ret_60": -17.4, "ret_120": -12.0, "ret_250": -9.0, "mdd_250": -28.5, "vol_250": 36.6, "pos_52w": 72.6}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 47, "hard": 35, "bondness": 39}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 137%,PE TTM 21.9 倍 但前瞻 PE 17.4 倍,PEG 0.48。", "自由现金流 4.5 亿(正),次年预期增速 36%(17 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 22%,毛利率近 5 年中位 14.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.1%(经营现金流/市值 12.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.1%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 2.39 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.9 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -9%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -17% / -12%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "继峰股份:PE 比行业中位低 8.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.5个百分点。"]}}