{"F": {"ts_code": "603995.SH", "name": "甬金股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "特钢Ⅱ", "sw3": "特钢Ⅲ", "ind": "特钢Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20191224", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 24.73, "pe_ttm": 14.9029, "pb": 1.5141, "dv_ttm": 3.2349, "total_mv": 899206.2935, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [5.2, 5.3, 4.6, 4.8, 5.7, 4.9], "rev_series": [204.4, 313.7, 395.6, 398.7, 418.6, 426.5], "np_series": [4.1, 5.9, 4.9, 4.5, 8.1, 5.5], "roe_series": [13.7, 17.2, 12.5, 9.8, 14.7, 9.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 452.7, "np_ttm": 6.1, "ocf_ttm": 14.2, "fcf_ttm": 4.7, "fcf_yield": 5.2, "ocf_yield": 15.7, "gm_median": 4.9, "gm_std": 0.4, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -0.6, "npm_median": 1.6, "roe_median": 12.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 42.9, "fix_assets": 75.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.48, "capex_dep": 1.51, "interest_debt": 45.9, "debt_ebitda": 2.7, "debt_ratio": 58.4, "debt_mv": 51.1, "payout": 40.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.5, "np_cagr3": 4.1, "rev_yoy": 13.0, "np_yoy": 17.9, "np_vol": 41.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 66.0, "earn_yield": 6.7, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 12.4, "fwd_pe2": 11.1, "fwd_g1": 20.0, "fwd_g2": 12.0, "peg": 1.03, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["300系精密冷轧不锈钢板带", 42.0], ["300系冷轧不锈钢", 42.0], ["400系精密冷轧不锈钢板带", 5.0], ["400系冷轧不锈钢", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 3.5, "ret_prev2_year": -2.5, "ret_ytd": 40.7, "ret_pivot": 69.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.0, "ret_60": 30.0, "ret_120": 34.3, "ret_250": 39.7, "mdd_250": -23.2, "vol_250": 37.9, "pos_52w": 89.8}, "S": {"duration": 31, "pricing": 42, "hard": 69, "bondness": 59}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["现金流红利"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 43%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 4.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 43%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 4.9%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.2%(经营现金流/市值 15.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 4.9%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 43%,资本开支/折旧 1.51 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.9 倍 粗算,约 66%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 40%,最大回撤 -23%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 90%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 30% / 34%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「特钢Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 15.6 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 11.3% / 固定资产占比 37% / 分红率 50%。", "甬金股份:PE 比行业中位低 0.7倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.5个百分点。"]}}