{"F": {"ts_code": "603993.SH", "name": "洛阳钼业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铜", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20121009", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.48, "pe_ttm": 14.2118, "pb": 4.4091, "dv_ttm": 1.5476, "total_mv": 39536685.2496, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [7.5, 9.4, 9.3, 9.7, 16.5, 23.9], "rev_series": [1129.8, 1738.6, 1729.9, 1862.7, 2130.3, 2066.8], "np_series": [23.3, 51.1, 60.7, 82.5, 135.3, 203.4], "roe_series": [5.8, 13.0, 13.3, 14.8, 20.7, 26.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2472.3, "np_ttm": 278.2, "ocf_ttm": 251.7, "fcf_ttm": 168.7, "fcf_yield": 4.3, "ocf_yield": 6.4, "gm_median": 9.7, "gm_std": 5.8, "gm_stab": 0.4, "gm_chg_2022": 1.8, "npm_median": 4.6, "roe_median": 14.8, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 23.1, "fix_assets": 525.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 4.39, "capex_dep": 1.53, "interest_debt": 482.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 52.2, "debt_mv": 12.2, "payout": 40.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.1, "np_cagr3": 49.7, "rev_yoy": 42.8, "np_yoy": 86.3, "np_vol": 34.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 65.0, "earn_yield": 7.0, "consensus_n": 21, "fwd_pe": 11.8, "fwd_pe2": 10.6, "fwd_g1": 20.0, "fwd_g2": 12.0, "peg": 0.98, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["矿产贸易", 25.0], ["精炼金属贸易", 16.0], ["矿产贸易：精炼金属产品贸易", 16.0], ["矿山采掘及加工", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 222.7, "ret_prev2_year": 35.6, "ret_ytd": -6.3, "ret_pivot": 169.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.3, "ret_60": 6.4, "ret_120": -5.1, "ret_250": 56.7, "mdd_250": -39.4, "vol_250": 59.4, "pos_52w": 69.1}, "S": {"duration": 30, "pricing": 70, "hard": 37, "bondness": 40}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 86%,PE TTM 14.2 倍 但前瞻 PE 11.8 倍,PEG 0.98。", "自由现金流 168.7 亿(正),次年预期增速 12%(21 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 9.7%),硬资产占比 23%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.3%(经营现金流/市值 6.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.7%,稳定度 40%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 23%,资本开支/折旧 1.53 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.2 倍 粗算,约 65%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 57%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / 6% / -5%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "洛阳钼业:PE 比行业中位低 6.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.4个百分点。"]}}