{"F": {"ts_code": "603992.SH", "name": "松霖科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "卫浴制品", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20190826", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.74, "pe_ttm": 34.4127, "pb": 2.5532, "dv_ttm": 1.796, "total_mv": 918868.6932, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.6, 29.5, 30.8, 35.0, 35.4, 33.1], "rev_series": [20.3, 29.8, 31.8, 29.8, 30.1, 26.2], "np_series": [2.7, 3.0, 2.6, 3.5, 4.5, 2.1], "roe_series": [14.2, 14.2, 11.9, 14.9, 15.5, 6.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 31.2, "np_ttm": 2.7, "ocf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 2.8, "gm_median": 33.1, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -3.8, "npm_median": 10.5, "roe_median": 14.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.1, "fix_assets": 13.1, "goodwill_ratio": 1.9, "pb_calc": 2.55, "capex_dep": 1.82, "interest_debt": 1.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 20.0, "debt_mv": 1.4, "payout": 48.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -6.3, "np_cagr3": -7.7, "rev_yoy": 44.0, "np_yoy": 66.2, "np_vol": 32.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 2.9, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 23.6, "fwd_pe2": 18.0, "fwd_g1": 46.0, "fwd_g2": 31.0, "peg": 0.76, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 48.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 128.0, "ret_prev2_year": 4.6, "ret_ytd": -49.0, "ret_pivot": 37.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.4, "ret_60": -35.0, "ret_120": -34.7, "ret_250": -33.4, "mdd_250": -54.0, "vol_250": 55.2, "pos_52w": 46.6}, "S": {"duration": 58, "pricing": 54, "hard": 47, "bondness": 49}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 66%,PE TTM 34.4 倍 但前瞻 PE 23.6 倍,PEG 0.76。", "自由现金流 0.3 亿(正),次年预期增速 31%(5 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.1%),硬资产占比 29%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 2.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.1%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 29%,资本开支/折旧 1.82 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 34.4 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -33%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 47%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -35% / -35%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "松霖科技:PE 比行业中位高 6.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.5个百分点。"]}}