{"F": {"ts_code": "603990.SH", "name": "麦迪科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20161208", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.73, "pe_ttm": 362.3294, "pb": 7.5189, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 632773.7142, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [72.3, 69.8, 70.5, 20.4, 13.7, 60.4], "rev_series": [3.1, 3.5, 3.1, 6.2, 4.6, 3.0], "np_series": [0.4, 0.4, 0.3, -2.7, -2.8, 0.4], "roe_series": [4.1, 3.6, 2.7, -22.0, -29.5, 4.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.9, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.5, "ocf_yield": 1.1, "gm_median": 60.4, "gm_std": 24.8, "gm_stab": 0.59, "gm_chg_2022": -1.8, "npm_median": 11.6, "roe_median": 2.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.3, "fix_assets": 1.7, "goodwill_ratio": 2.6, "pb_calc": 7.52, "capex_dep": 2.36, "interest_debt": 2.3, "debt_ebitda": 3.7, "debt_ratio": 29.8, "debt_mv": 3.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -0.4, "np_cagr3": 5.3, "rev_yoy": -8.9, "np_yoy": -76.6, "np_vol": 374.9, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 92.1, "fwd_pe2": 64.8, "fwd_g1": 293.0, "fwd_g2": 42.0, "peg": 2.19, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["自制软件", 16.0], ["运维服务", 13.0], ["运维及技术服务", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 47.6, "ret_prev2_year": -20.4, "ret_ytd": 36.7, "ret_pivot": 134.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.1, "ret_60": 3.4, "ret_120": 38.5, "ret_250": 35.0, "mdd_250": -29.0, "vol_250": 47.4, "pos_52w": 83.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 57, "hard": 23, "bondness": 31}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 362 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 30%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 60.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.5%(经营现金流/市值 1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 60.4%,稳定度 59%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 2.36 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 362.3 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 35%,最大回撤 -29%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / 3% / 38%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "麦迪科技:PE 比行业中位高 279.6倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.5个百分点。"]}}