{"F": {"ts_code": "603985.SH", "name": "恒润股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "风电设备", "sw3": "风电零部件", "ind": "风电设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170505", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.76, "pe_ttm": 70.1205, "pb": 2.3574, "dv_ttm": 0.3376, "total_mv": 782963.808, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.0, 24.3, 10.9, 8.2, 5.2, 9.0], "rev_series": [23.8, 22.9, 19.4, 18.5, 17.3, 39.6], "np_series": [4.6, 4.4, 0.9, -0.3, -1.4, 0.8], "roe_series": [34.8, 18.2, 2.8, -1.0, -4.2, 2.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 37.6, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_ttm": -2.5, "fcf_yield": -3.2, "ocf_yield": -2.0, "gm_median": 9.0, "gm_std": 6.6, "gm_stab": 0.26, "gm_chg_2022": -19.1, "npm_median": 2.2, "roe_median": 2.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.6, "fix_assets": 25.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.36, "capex_dep": 0.29, "interest_debt": 16.8, "debt_ebitda": 2.9, "debt_ratio": 45.1, "debt_mv": 21.5, "payout": 31.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 26.7, "np_cagr3": -4.1, "rev_yoy": -9.8, "np_yoy": 70.2, "np_vol": 150.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 27.0], ["算力业务", 15.0], ["算力产品", 14.0], ["算力业务：算力产品销售", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 30.6, "ret_prev2_year": -53.1, "ret_ytd": 17.0, "ret_pivot": 96.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.5, "ret_60": -23.6, "ret_120": -1.2, "ret_250": -4.2, "mdd_250": -51.4, "vol_250": 52.0, "pos_52w": 61.2}, "S": {"duration": 83, "pricing": 17, "hard": 67, "bondness": 22}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 42%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 9.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -19.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 42%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 9.0%,稳定度 26%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.2%(经营现金流/市值 -2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.0%,稳定度 26%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -19.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 0.29 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 70.1 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -24% / -1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「风电设备」31 家中位:PE 32.3 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 17.3% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "恒润股份:PE 比行业中位高 37.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.3个百分点。"]}}