{"F": {"ts_code": "603980.SH", "name": "吉华集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "纺织化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170615", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.94, "pe_ttm": 55.4013, "pb": 1.3885, "dv_ttm": 1.8514, "total_mv": 537405.7196, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.4, 16.6, 1.7, 6.0, 12.0, 12.4], "rev_series": [18.3, 22.5, 19.3, 16.9, 16.4, 15.2], "np_series": [2.3, 1.4, -2.1, -2.4, 1.7, 0.5], "roe_series": [5.1, 3.0, -4.8, -6.0, 4.4, 1.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.1, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_yield": 2.3, "ocf_yield": 2.6, "gm_median": 12.0, "gm_std": 5.2, "gm_stab": 0.56, "gm_chg_2022": -23.7, "npm_median": 3.4, "roe_median": 1.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.4, "fix_assets": 6.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 1.39, "capex_dep": 0.11, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 11.1, "debt_mv": 0.6, "payout": 749.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -7.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 12.3, "np_yoy": 1235.5, "np_vol": 135.3, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["染料及中间体系列产品", 29.0], ["染料及中间体", 29.0], ["聚氨酯系列产品", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 17.8, "ret_prev2_year": -5.2, "ret_ytd": 62.3, "ret_pivot": 160.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 16.6, "ret_60": 47.3, "ret_120": 9.8, "ret_250": 46.4, "mdd_250": -37.1, "vol_250": 49.1, "pos_52w": 92.6}, "S": {"duration": 75, "pricing": 29, "hard": 23, "bondness": 66}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 1.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 55 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 11%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 12.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.3%(经营现金流/市值 2.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.0%,稳定度 56%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -23.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 0.11 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 55.4 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 46%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 93%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 17% / 47% / 10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "吉华集团:PE 比行业中位高 19.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 20.1个百分点。"]}}