{"F": {"ts_code": "603979.SH", "name": "金诚信", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铜", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150630", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 79.54, "pe_ttm": 17.4587, "pb": 4.0653, "dv_ttm": 0.8298, "total_mv": 4961646.3404, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.2, 26.8, 26.8, 30.4, 31.5, 33.8], "rev_series": [38.6, 45.0, 53.5, 74.0, 99.4, 138.9], "np_series": [3.7, 4.7, 6.1, 10.3, 15.8, 23.4], "roe_series": [8.1, 9.4, 10.7, 15.5, 19.6, 23.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 152.2, "np_ttm": 28.4, "ocf_ttm": 40.2, "fcf_ttm": 19.6, "fcf_yield": 4.0, "ocf_yield": 8.1, "gm_median": 30.4, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -1.3, "npm_median": 13.9, "roe_median": 15.5, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 27.6, "fix_assets": 64.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.0, "capex_dep": 1.89, "interest_debt": 54.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 46.2, "debt_mv": 11.0, "payout": 17.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 37.4, "np_cagr3": 56.5, "rev_yoy": 21.0, "np_yoy": 45.3, "np_vol": 15.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 71.0, "earn_yield": 5.7, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 14.7, "fwd_pe2": 12.5, "fwd_g1": 19.0, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 0.86, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["阴极铜,铜精矿,磷矿石,铁矿石产品销售", 21.0], ["铜精矿及磷矿石销售", 21.0], ["采矿运营管理", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 114.5, "ret_prev2_year": -3.5, "ret_ytd": 5.4, "ret_pivot": 98.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.4, "ret_60": 17.9, "ret_120": 28.9, "ret_250": 39.1, "mdd_250": -40.0, "vol_250": 58.6, "pos_52w": 91.3}, "S": {"duration": 35, "pricing": 70, "hard": 44, "bondness": 14}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 45%,PE TTM 17.5 倍 但前瞻 PE 14.7 倍,PEG 0.86。", "自由现金流 19.6 亿(正),次年预期增速 17%(11 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 30.4%),硬资产占比 28%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.0%(经营现金流/市值 8.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.4%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 1.89 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.5 倍 粗算,约 71%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 39%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 91%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / 18% / 29%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;已在高位,贴现率冲击时跌幅按 PE 放大。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "金诚信:PE 比行业中位低 3.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 19.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点。"]}}