{"F": {"ts_code": "603977.SH", "name": "国泰集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "民爆制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20161111", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.8, "pe_ttm": 32.0227, "pb": 2.1324, "dv_ttm": 1.1017, "total_mv": 733065.324, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.8, 36.2, 35.4, 35.9, 36.6, 36.3], "rev_series": [17.0, 19.9, 21.5, 25.4, 23.5, 23.6], "np_series": [1.9, 2.4, 1.4, 3.0, 1.8, 2.5], "roe_series": [9.3, 10.0, 5.3, 10.2, 5.7, 7.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.6, "np_ttm": 2.3, "ocf_ttm": -2.0, "fcf_ttm": -6.9, "fcf_yield": -9.4, "ocf_yield": -2.7, "gm_median": 36.2, "gm_std": 0.4, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": -1.5, "npm_median": 11.3, "roe_median": 7.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.2, "fix_assets": 22.1, "goodwill_ratio": 7.5, "pb_calc": 2.13, "capex_dep": 3.95, "interest_debt": 20.4, "debt_ebitda": 4.5, "debt_ratio": 43.4, "debt_mv": 27.8, "payout": 31.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.1, "np_cagr3": 20.6, "rev_yoy": 9.1, "np_yoy": -19.2, "np_vol": 56.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.1, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 23.6, "fwd_pe2": 19.0, "fwd_g1": 36.0, "fwd_g2": 24.0, "peg": 0.98, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["主营业务", 32.0], ["工业炸药", 9.0], ["爆破工程", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 8.2, "ret_prev2_year": 26.9, "ret_ytd": -14.3, "ret_pivot": 29.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.9, "ret_60": -7.1, "ret_120": -16.2, "ret_250": -9.9, "mdd_250": -36.5, "vol_250": 49.0, "pos_52w": 69.9}, "S": {"duration": 55, "pricing": 59, "hard": 52, "bondness": 48}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 22 亿,占总资产 32%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 36.2%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.5 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -9.4%,股息率 1.1%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 84%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 32%)和定价权(毛利率 36.2% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -9.4%(经营现金流/市值 -2.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.2%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 3.95 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 32.0 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -7% / -16%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "国泰集团:PE 比行业中位低 3.9倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.3个百分点。"]}}