{"F": {"ts_code": "603976.SH", "name": "正川股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗器械", "sw3": "医疗耗材", "ind": "医疗器械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170822", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 35.82, "pe_ttm": 359.4436, "pb": 5.2459, "dv_ttm": 0.7133, "total_mv": 614723.139, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.6, 25.7, 20.9, 16.0, 20.7, 18.3], "rev_series": [5.0, 8.0, 8.0, 9.0, 8.0, 6.6], "np_series": [0.5, 1.1, 0.6, 0.4, 0.5, 0.2], "roe_series": [5.1, 9.7, 5.5, 3.4, 4.4, 1.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.2, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 2.5, "gm_median": 20.7, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -4.6, "npm_median": 6.6, "roe_median": 4.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.0, "fix_assets": 7.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.15, "capex_dep": 0.54, "interest_debt": 4.4, "debt_ebitda": 2.8, "debt_ratio": 37.6, "debt_mv": 7.2, "payout": 98.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -5.9, "np_cagr3": -33.7, "rev_yoy": 17.6, "np_yoy": -12.8, "np_vol": 60.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["硼硅玻璃管制瓶", 24.0], ["钠钙玻璃管制瓶", 19.0], ["瓶盖", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 21.6, "ret_prev2_year": -17.0, "ret_ytd": 88.1, "ret_pivot": 178.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 25.6, "ret_60": 43.3, "ret_120": 80.5, "ret_250": 64.2, "mdd_250": -23.0, "vol_250": 45.9, "pos_52w": 100.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 44, "hard": 66, "bondness": 67}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 359.4 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 20.7%、固定资产占比 41%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 41%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 20.7%,稳定度 84%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.7%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 41%,资本开支/折旧 0.54 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 359.4 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 64%,最大回撤 -23%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 100%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 26% / 43% / 80%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗器械」140 家中位:PE 38.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 55.4% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 45%。", "正川股份:PE 比行业中位高 320.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 34.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.1个百分点。"]}}