{"F": {"ts_code": "603969.SH", "name": "银龙股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150227", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.9, "pe_ttm": 15.8306, "pb": 2.2793, "dv_ttm": 0.8861, "total_mv": 688511.702, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.1, 13.6, 13.3, 15.1, 18.5, 25.0], "rev_series": [25.6, 31.5, 24.6, 27.5, 30.5, 32.1], "np_series": [1.4, 1.5, 1.0, 1.7, 2.4, 3.7], "roe_series": [7.3, 7.5, 5.1, 7.9, 10.1, 14.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 33.2, "np_ttm": 4.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_yield": 2.0, "ocf_yield": 2.5, "gm_median": 15.1, "gm_std": 4.4, "gm_stab": 0.71, "gm_chg_2022": -0.8, "npm_median": 6.6, "roe_median": 7.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.5, "fix_assets": 3.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.28, "capex_dep": 0.92, "interest_debt": 8.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 35.8, "debt_mv": 12.0, "payout": 35.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 9.2, "np_cagr3": 52.1, "rev_yoy": 8.0, "np_yoy": 40.3, "np_vol": 34.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 68.0, "earn_yield": 6.3, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 12.7, "fwd_pe2": 10.1, "fwd_g1": 25.0, "fwd_g2": 26.0, "peg": 0.49, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["钢丝", 36.0], ["钢绞线", 29.0], ["轨道交通用混凝土制品销售及配套服务", 16.0], ["轨道交通用产品", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 51.9, "ret_prev2_year": 14.4, "ret_ytd": -21.3, "ret_pivot": 94.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.8, "ret_60": 4.6, "ret_120": -19.6, "ret_250": -17.2, "mdd_250": -40.4, "vol_250": 44.0, "pos_52w": 69.7}, "S": {"duration": 33, "pricing": 39, "hard": 10, "bondness": 32}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 40%,PE TTM 15.8 倍 但前瞻 PE 12.7 倍,PEG 0.49。", "自由现金流 1.4 亿(正),次年预期增速 26%(4 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.0%(经营现金流/市值 2.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.1%,稳定度 71%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 0.92 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 15.8 倍 粗算,约 68%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -17%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 5% / -20%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "银龙股份:PE 比行业中位低 34.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.3个百分点。"]}}