{"F": {"ts_code": "603967.SH", "name": "中创物流", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "跨境物流", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20190429", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.66, "pe_ttm": 13.7914, "pb": 1.7377, "dv_ttm": 5.5746, "total_mv": 404213.3722, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [6.2, 3.7, 4.4, 7.5, 5.2, 7.2], "rev_series": [51.5, 124.1, 118.6, 74.0, 118.4, 88.5], "np_series": [1.8, 2.1, 2.4, 2.4, 2.5, 2.6], "roe_series": [9.1, 10.2, 11.4, 10.7, 10.9, 11.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 96.3, "np_ttm": 2.9, "ocf_ttm": 3.3, "fcf_ttm": 2.8, "fcf_yield": 7.1, "ocf_yield": 8.0, "gm_median": 5.2, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.71, "gm_chg_2022": -1.8, "npm_median": 2.7, "roe_median": 10.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.8, "fix_assets": 5.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.74, "capex_dep": 0.56, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 37.4, "debt_mv": 2.1, "payout": 82.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -9.3, "np_cagr3": 2.3, "rev_yoy": 18.0, "np_yoy": 22.8, "np_vol": 7.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 64.0, "earn_yield": 7.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["集装箱出口", 30.0], ["跨境集装箱物流", 30.0], ["工程物流", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 52.8, "ret_prev2_year": -0.3, "ret_ytd": -10.9, "ret_pivot": 65.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.3, "ret_60": -0.9, "ret_120": -5.7, "ret_250": 4.8, "mdd_250": -26.5, "vol_250": 31.8, "pos_52w": 82.8}, "S": {"duration": 29, "pricing": 34, "hard": 22, "bondness": 79}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 82%、股息率 5.6%、营收 3 年复合 -9.3%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 5.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.1%(经营现金流/市值 8.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 5.2%,稳定度 71%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 0.56 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.8 倍 粗算,约 64%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 5%,最大回撤 -26%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 83%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -1% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "中创物流:PE 比行业中位低 7.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.8个百分点。"]}}