{"F": {"ts_code": "603960.SH", "name": "克来机电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170314", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.34, "pe_ttm": 11906.4783, "pb": 3.8506, "dv_ttm": 0.1958, "total_mv": 428431.3686, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.2, 25.2, 24.0, 26.1, 21.4, 19.4], "rev_series": [7.7, 5.6, 6.8, 6.9, 5.9, 5.0], "np_series": [1.3, 0.5, 0.6, 0.9, 0.6, 0.3], "roe_series": [16.5, 5.2, 6.5, 8.9, 5.0, 2.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.5, "np_ttm": 0.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 24.0, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -8.2, "npm_median": 9.3, "roe_median": 5.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.1, "fix_assets": 2.6, "goodwill_ratio": 13.2, "pb_calc": 3.85, "capex_dep": 1.33, "interest_debt": 0.9, "debt_ebitda": 2.5, "debt_ratio": 18.4, "debt_mv": 2.1, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -9.8, "np_cagr3": -24.6, "rev_yoy": -20.2, "np_yoy": -139.8, "np_vol": 43.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100.0, "earn_yield": 0.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 42.0], ["汽车零部件", 21.0], ["智能装备产品", 17.0], ["智能装备业务", 17.0]], "ret_prev_year": -0.0, "ret_prev2_year": 35.2, "ret_ytd": -17.6, "ret_pivot": -2.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.3, "ret_60": -17.1, "ret_120": -27.6, "ret_250": -20.5, "mdd_250": -51.1, "vol_250": 46.6, "pos_52w": 58.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 47, "hard": 26, "bondness": 39}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 11906.5 倍,估值里约 100% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 16%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 16%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.0%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 1.33 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 11906.5 倍 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -17% / -28%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "克来机电:PE 比行业中位高 11876.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.4个百分点。"]}}