{"F": {"ts_code": "603955.SH", "name": "大千生态", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "基础建设", "sw3": "园林工程", "ind": "基础建设", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170310", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.17, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.4762, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 346966.3501, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.5, 21.9, 22.3, 3.3, 32.3, 15.3], "rev_series": [9.4, 5.6, 2.5, 1.3, 1.1, 3.6], "np_series": [1.0, 0.6, 0.1, -0.8, 0.3, -1.2], "roe_series": [7.4, 3.7, 0.7, -5.3, 1.9, -8.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.0, "np_ttm": -1.5, "ocf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_ttm": -1.8, "fcf_yield": -5.3, "ocf_yield": -3.3, "gm_median": 21.9, "gm_std": 9.6, "gm_stab": 0.56, "gm_chg_2022": -1.1, "npm_median": 9.0, "roe_median": 0.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.7, "fix_assets": 0.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.48, "capex_dep": 2.53, "interest_debt": 5.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 35.0, "debt_mv": 14.4, "payout": 23.3, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 13.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 249.6, "np_yoy": -153.7, "np_vol": 369.0, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["宠物服务及销售", 24.0], ["宠物业务", 24.0], ["文旅运营", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 60.7, "ret_prev2_year": 23.3, "ret_ytd": -27.0, "ret_pivot": 197.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.1, "ret_60": -8.3, "ret_120": -23.7, "ret_250": -45.9, "mdd_250": -56.6, "vol_250": 40.4, "pos_52w": 54.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 37, "hard": 4, "bondness": 18}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 35%,有息负债 5 亿,经营现金流/市值 -3.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 3%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.3%(经营现金流/市值 -3.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.9%,稳定度 56%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 2.53 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -46%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -8% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「基础建设」40 家中位:PE 11.7 / 股息率 2.3% / 毛利率 12.4% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 28%。", "大千生态:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点。"]}}