{"F": {"ts_code": "603950.SH", "name": "长源东谷", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200526", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 65.14, "pe_ttm": 53.9024, "pb": 6.7266, "dv_ttm": 0.1993, "total_mv": 2111388.0312, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.3, 28.9, 20.7, 25.8, 23.0, 27.0], "rev_series": [16.8, 15.8, 11.2, 14.7, 19.2, 22.6], "np_series": [3.1, 2.5, 1.0, 2.2, 2.3, 3.9], "roe_series": [20.3, 11.7, 4.4, 9.3, 8.9, 13.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.3, "np_ttm": 3.9, "ocf_ttm": 6.2, "fcf_ttm": 3.0, "fcf_yield": 1.4, "ocf_yield": 3.0, "gm_median": 25.8, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -12.6, "npm_median": 14.8, "roe_median": 9.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 47.8, "fix_assets": 29.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.73, "capex_dep": 1.05, "interest_debt": 11.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.6, "debt_ratio": 48.1, "debt_mv": 5.5, "payout": 20.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 26.4, "np_cagr3": 57.2, "rev_yoy": -2.0, "np_yoy": 1.7, "np_vol": 63.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.9, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 39.0, "fwd_pe2": 31.0, "fwd_g1": 38.0, "fwd_g2": 26.0, "peg": 1.5, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["缸体", 27.0], ["缸盖", 18.0], ["连杆", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 66.9, "ret_prev2_year": 14.7, "ret_ytd": 126.0, "ret_pivot": 501.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.2, "ret_60": 10.2, "ret_120": 45.9, "ret_250": 128.7, "mdd_250": -45.6, "vol_250": 76.3, "pos_52w": 73.6}, "S": {"duration": 74, "pricing": 48, "hard": 76, "bondness": 13}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 53.9 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.8%、固定资产占比 48%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.8%,稳定度 89%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.4%(经营现金流/市值 3.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.8%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 1.05 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 53.9 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 129%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 76%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / 10% / 46%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "长源东谷:PE 比行业中位高 23.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 22.3个百分点。"]}}