{"F": {"ts_code": "603949.SH", "name": "雪龙集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200310", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.83, "pe_ttm": 32.2717, "pb": 2.8846, "dv_ttm": 1.4835, "total_mv": 312522.5261, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [52.6, 46.1, 34.5, 38.0, 32.2, 35.6], "rev_series": [4.9, 4.7, 2.9, 3.8, 3.6, 4.3], "np_series": [1.5, 1.3, 0.4, 0.7, 0.6, 0.9], "roe_series": [21.0, 12.9, 4.2, 7.0, 5.9, 8.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.6, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -2.1, "ocf_yield": 1.5, "gm_median": 35.6, "gm_std": 4.8, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -18.0, "npm_median": 18.4, "roe_median": 7.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.2, "fix_assets": 3.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.88, "capex_dep": 4.79, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 9.8, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 51.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 14.3, "np_cagr3": 28.5, "rev_yoy": 13.1, "np_yoy": 16.6, "np_vol": 48.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 59.0, "ret_prev2_year": -35.5, "ret_ytd": -20.1, "ret_pivot": 61.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.2, "ret_60": 1.4, "ret_120": -32.2, "ret_250": -23.4, "mdd_250": -49.4, "vol_250": 49.1, "pos_52w": 61.8}, "S": {"duration": 55, "pricing": 52, "hard": 40, "bondness": 33}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 32.3 倍、股息率 1.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 35.6%、固定资产占比 25%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 35.6%),硬资产占比 25%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.6%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -18.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 4.79 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 32.3 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -23%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 1% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "雪龙集团:PE 比行业中位高 2.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点。"]}}