{"F": {"ts_code": "603938.SH", "name": "三孚股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "其他化学原料", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170628", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 39.49, "pe_ttm": 93.8751, "pb": 5.7806, "dv_ttm": 0.0555, "total_mv": 1510984.1505, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.0, 33.8, 41.2, 23.9, 14.1, 13.3], "rev_series": [10.1, 16.0, 26.5, 21.3, 17.7, 21.0], "np_series": [1.0, 3.4, 7.5, 2.0, 0.6, 0.8], "roe_series": [8.2, 24.1, 39.0, 8.4, 2.6, 3.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.0, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.1, "ocf_yield": 0.5, "gm_median": 23.9, "gm_std": 10.9, "gm_stab": 0.54, "gm_chg_2022": 20.2, "npm_median": 8.4, "roe_median": 8.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.7, "fix_assets": 16.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.78, "capex_dep": 0.47, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 23.5, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 10.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -7.5, "np_cagr3": -52.5, "rev_yoy": 30.2, "np_yoy": 209.7, "np_vol": 120.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["钾系列", 32.0], ["钾产品", 32.0], ["硅烷偶联剂", 14.0], ["硅系列", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 77.2, "ret_prev2_year": -39.8, "ret_ytd": 106.9, "ret_pivot": 313.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.4, "ret_60": -33.0, "ret_120": 45.3, "ret_250": 167.2, "mdd_250": -55.2, "vol_250": 75.7, "pos_52w": 52.1}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 42, "hard": 78, "bondness": 24}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 93.9 倍、股息率 0.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.9%、固定资产占比 49%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 49%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.9%,稳定度 54%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.1%(经营现金流/市值 0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.9%,稳定度 54%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 20.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 49%,资本开支/折旧 0.47 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 93.9 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 167%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 76%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -33% / 45%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "三孚股份:PE 比行业中位高 58.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点。"]}}