{"F": {"ts_code": "603937.SH", "name": "丽岛新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铝", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171102", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.6, "pe_ttm": 103.2631, "pb": 1.5562, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 242314.72, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.1, 14.0, 12.1, 11.2, 6.5, 4.4], "rev_series": [13.7, 17.4, 16.0, 14.1, 15.8, 19.7], "np_series": [1.1, 1.3, 0.9, 0.7, -0.3, -0.4], "roe_series": [7.9, 8.7, 5.7, 4.2, -2.1, -2.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.0, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": 4.8, "gm_median": 11.2, "gm_std": 3.6, "gm_stab": 0.68, "gm_chg_2022": -2.0, "npm_median": 4.8, "roe_median": 4.2, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 39.9, "fix_assets": 10.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.53, "capex_dep": 1.16, "interest_debt": 2.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 40.5, "debt_mv": 11.6, "payout": 30.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 7.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 26.2, "np_yoy": 249.2, "np_vol": 58.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["建筑工业彩涂铝", 10.0], ["建筑型彩涂铝材", 10.0], ["食品包装铝材", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 32.3, "ret_prev2_year": -27.9, "ret_ytd": -3.3, "ret_pivot": 51.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.0, "ret_60": -13.1, "ret_120": -13.8, "ret_250": 4.3, "mdd_250": -51.0, "vol_250": 52.2, "pos_52w": 61.4}, "S": {"duration": 92, "pricing": 70, "hard": 64, "bondness": 29}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["商品定价", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 103 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 40%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 4.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 40%、毛利率 11.2% 两条都占,但所在行业(有色金属)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 4.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.2%,稳定度 68%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 1.16 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 103.3 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 4%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -13% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "丽岛新材:PE 比行业中位高 82.8倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.4个百分点。"]}}