{"F": {"ts_code": "603936.SH", "name": "博敏电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "元件", "sw3": "印制电路板", "ind": "元件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20151209", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.98, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.4214, "dv_ttm": 0.0626, "total_mv": 1031266.104, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.4, 19.2, 16.2, 9.7, 7.9, 14.5], "rev_series": [27.9, 35.2, 29.0, 29.1, 32.7, 36.1], "np_series": [2.5, 2.4, 0.8, -5.7, -2.4, 0.1], "roe_series": [8.3, 6.8, 2.2, -13.7, -5.4, 0.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 37.7, "np_ttm": -0.8, "ocf_ttm": 3.1, "fcf_ttm": -7.9, "fcf_yield": -7.7, "ocf_yield": 3.0, "gm_median": 14.5, "gm_std": 4.1, "gm_stab": 0.71, "gm_chg_2022": -5.2, "npm_median": 0.1, "roe_median": 0.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 51.6, "fix_assets": 56.9, "goodwill_ratio": 4.7, "pb_calc": 2.42, "capex_dep": 3.1, "interest_debt": 37.8, "debt_ebitda": 8.4, "debt_ratio": 61.0, "debt_mv": 36.6, "payout": 200.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 7.6, "np_cagr3": -56.6, "rev_yoy": 9.3, "np_yoy": -235.4, "np_vol": 333.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 49.9, "fwd_pe2": 25.0, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 100.0, "peg": 0.5, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["印刷电路板", 25.0], ["印制电路板", 25.0], ["定制化电子电器组件(模组)", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 50.9, "ret_prev2_year": -19.2, "ret_ytd": 25.9, "ret_pivot": 128.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.3, "ret_60": -32.6, "ret_120": 3.6, "ret_250": 40.5, "mdd_250": -58.3, "vol_250": 66.8, "pos_52w": 55.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 36, "hard": 83, "bondness": 63}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 52%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 14.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 8.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 52%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.5%,稳定度 71%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -7.7%(经营现金流/市值 3.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.5%,稳定度 71%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 52%,资本开支/折旧 3.10 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 40%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 67%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -33% / 4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「元件」67 家中位:PE 65.2 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 21.3% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "博敏电子:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.7个百分点。"]}}