{"F": {"ts_code": "603929.SH", "name": "亚翔集成", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "专业工程", "sw3": "其他专业工程", "ind": "专业工程", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20161230", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 150.26, "pe_ttm": 26.2421, "pb": 13.4271, "dv_ttm": 1.7636, "total_mv": 3205947.36, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [8.3, 7.9, 10.8, 14.2, 13.6, 24.6], "rev_series": [9.3, 22.1, 30.4, 32.0, 53.8, 49.1], "np_series": [-0.3, 0.2, 1.5, 2.9, 6.4, 8.9], "roe_series": [-3.0, 2.4, 13.6, 22.1, 39.1, 43.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 57.7, "np_ttm": 12.2, "ocf_ttm": 6.6, "fcf_ttm": 6.5, "fcf_yield": 2.0, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 13.6, "gm_std": 5.6, "gm_stab": 0.58, "gm_chg_2022": 2.5, "npm_median": 9.2, "roe_median": 22.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.9, "fix_assets": 0.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 13.43, "capex_dep": 0.74, "interest_debt": 1.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 56.4, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 63.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 17.3, "np_cagr3": 81.0, "rev_yoy": 51.4, "np_yoy": 204.8, "np_vol": 164.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.8, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 21.2, "fwd_pe2": 14.0, "fwd_g1": 24.0, "fwd_g2": 51.0, "peg": 0.42, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["洁净室系统集成工程施工收入", 49.0], ["洁净室系统集成工程施工", 49.0], ["其他工程施工收入", 0.0], ["其他工程施工", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 289.7, "ret_prev2_year": 25.0, "ret_ytd": 60.1, "ret_pivot": 785.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.8, "ret_60": -34.9, "ret_120": 8.0, "ret_250": 318.1, "mdd_250": -50.5, "vol_250": 80.1, "pos_52w": 54.4}, "S": {"duration": 48, "pricing": 36, "hard": 1, "bondness": 36}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 205%,PE TTM 26.2 倍 但前瞻 PE 21.2 倍,PEG 0.42。", "自由现金流 6.5 亿(正),次年预期增速 51%(9 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 1%,毛利率近 5 年中位 13.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.0%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.6%,稳定度 58%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 0.74 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 26.2 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 318%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 80%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -35% / 8%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专业工程」39 家中位:PE 40.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 13.6% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 38%。", "亚翔集成:PE 比行业中位低 14.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.4个百分点。"]}}