{"F": {"ts_code": "603926.SH", "name": "铁流股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170510", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.91, "pe_ttm": 40.363, "pb": 2.2392, "dv_ttm": 0.7688, "total_mv": 393980.3406, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.5, 24.5, 17.0, 17.4, 17.3, 16.8], "rev_series": [15.1, 18.8, 21.0, 22.0, 24.0, 23.8], "np_series": [1.6, 1.8, 0.8, 1.0, 1.0, 0.8], "roe_series": [13.5, 12.6, 5.4, 6.0, 6.2, 4.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.0, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 4.5, "fcf_ttm": 3.8, "fcf_yield": 9.5, "ocf_yield": 11.3, "gm_median": 17.3, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -9.5, "npm_median": 4.1, "roe_median": 6.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.9, "fix_assets": 7.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 2.24, "capex_dep": 0.72, "interest_debt": 2.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 40.3, "debt_mv": 5.7, "payout": 57.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.3, "np_cagr3": -2.6, "rev_yoy": 1.5, "np_yoy": 41.3, "np_vol": 26.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.5, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 26.2, "fwd_pe2": 21.3, "fwd_g1": 54.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 1.14, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 100.2, "ret_prev2_year": -27.9, "ret_ytd": -0.2, "ret_pivot": 138.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.1, "ret_60": -10.6, "ret_120": -14.6, "ret_250": 20.1, "mdd_250": -47.6, "vol_250": 48.4, "pos_52w": 63.2}, "S": {"duration": 64, "pricing": 41, "hard": 41, "bondness": 43}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 41%,PE TTM 40.4 倍 但前瞻 PE 26.2 倍,PEG 1.14。", "自由现金流 3.8 亿(正),次年预期增速 23%(2 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 26%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 9.5%(经营现金流/市值 11.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.3%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 0.72 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 40.4 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 20%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / -11% / -15%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "铁流股份:PE 比行业中位高 10.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点。"]}}