{"F": {"ts_code": "603922.SH", "name": "ST金鸿顺", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "其他汽车零部件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171023", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.13, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.7023, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 253209.6, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.9, 13.8, 11.8, 11.3, 9.5, 16.1], "rev_series": [4.7, 5.2, 5.2, 4.6, 8.7, 6.4], "np_series": [0.1, 0.2, -0.1, 0.1, -0.1, -1.0], "roe_series": [0.7, 1.8, -1.1, 0.6, -1.1, -10.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.8, "np_ttm": -1.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": 1.3, "gm_median": 11.8, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -1.1, "npm_median": -1.4, "roe_median": -1.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.6, "fix_assets": 1.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.7, "capex_dep": 2.37, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 22.5, "debt_mv": 0.6, "payout": 40.0, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 7.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 14.4, "np_yoy": 45.4, "np_vol": 345.2, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["汽车零部件", 47.0], ["其他业务", 3.0], ["模具", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -16.8, "ret_prev2_year": 32.3, "ret_ytd": -31.9, "ret_pivot": -1.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 25.9, "ret_60": 1.7, "ret_120": -33.7, "ret_250": -38.8, "mdd_250": -60.4, "vol_250": 50.6, "pos_52w": 57.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 41, "hard": 17, "bondness": 30}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 22%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 11%,毛利率近 5 年中位 11.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.8%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 2.37 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -39%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 26% / 2% / -34%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "ST金鸿顺:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.9个百分点。"]}}