{"F": {"ts_code": "603919.SH", "name": "金徽酒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "白酒Ⅱ", "sw3": "白酒Ⅲ", "ind": "白酒Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160310", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.74, "pe_ttm": 33.3082, "pb": 2.6452, "dv_ttm": 2.7945, "total_mv": 899879.24, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [62.5, 63.7, 62.8, 62.4, 60.9, 63.2], "rev_series": [17.3, 17.9, 20.1, 25.5, 30.2, 29.2], "np_series": [3.3, 3.2, 2.8, 3.3, 3.9, 3.5], "roe_series": [12.5, 11.3, 9.1, 10.2, 11.7, 10.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.7, "np_ttm": 2.7, "ocf_ttm": 3.7, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": 4.1, "gm_median": 62.8, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 0.3, "npm_median": 12.7, "roe_median": 10.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.8, "fix_assets": 18.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.65, "capex_dep": 3.42, "interest_debt": 2.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 34.6, "debt_mv": 2.2, "payout": 64.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 13.2, "np_cagr3": 8.1, "rev_yoy": 3.2, "np_yoy": -28.2, "np_vol": 13.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.0, "consensus_n": 31, "fwd_pe": 29.5, "fwd_pe2": 22.8, "fwd_g1": 13.0, "fwd_g2": 30.0, "peg": 0.98, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["中档白酒", 26.0], ["100-300元", 26.0], ["低档白酒", 12.0], ["100元以下", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 7.1, "ret_prev2_year": -19.9, "ret_ytd": -10.9, "ret_pivot": 14.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.2, "ret_60": -2.3, "ret_120": -7.2, "ret_250": -13.0, "mdd_250": -42.0, "vol_250": 43.1, "pos_52w": 72.8}, "S": {"duration": 57, "pricing": 73, "hard": 57, "bondness": 47}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 18 亿,占总资产 36%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 62.8%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.3 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -0.2%,股息率 2.8%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 85%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 36%)和定价权(毛利率 62.8% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 4.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 62.8%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 3.42 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 33.3 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -2% / -7%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「白酒Ⅱ」19 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 3.7% / 毛利率 74.5% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 60%。", "金徽酒:PE 比行业中位高 7.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.7个百分点。"]}}