{"F": {"ts_code": "603916.SH", "name": "苏博特", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171110", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.2, "pe_ttm": 35.7274, "pb": 1.1072, "dv_ttm": 1.0866, "total_mv": 470767.136, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.3, 35.3, 34.3, 35.1, 32.8, 33.1], "rev_series": [36.5, 45.2, 37.1, 35.8, 35.6, 35.6], "np_series": [4.4, 5.3, 2.9, 1.6, 1.0, 1.2], "roe_series": [15.1, 14.4, 7.1, 3.8, 2.3, 2.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 35.2, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 5.6, "fcf_ttm": 4.2, "fcf_yield": 8.9, "ocf_yield": 11.9, "gm_median": 34.3, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -4.0, "npm_median": 6.5, "roe_median": 3.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 23.3, "fix_assets": 19.2, "goodwill_ratio": 1.5, "pb_calc": 1.08, "capex_dep": 0.78, "interest_debt": 23.5, "debt_ebitda": 4.3, "debt_ratio": 40.0, "debt_mv": 50.0, "payout": 41.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.4, "np_cagr3": -25.1, "rev_yoy": -2.2, "np_yoy": 17.0, "np_vol": 32.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.8, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 27.0, "fwd_pe2": 21.4, "fwd_g1": 32.0, "fwd_g2": 26.0, "peg": 1.04, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["高性能减水剂", 49.0], ["功能性材料", 21.0], ["技术服务", 18.0], ["其他主营业务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 29.0, "ret_prev2_year": -26.3, "ret_ytd": 19.9, "ret_pivot": 75.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.4, "ret_60": -16.4, "ret_120": -2.3, "ret_250": 0.8, "mdd_250": -44.8, "vol_250": 51.2, "pos_52w": 67.5}, "S": {"duration": 59, "pricing": 56, "hard": 37, "bondness": 54}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 35.7 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 34.3%、固定资产占比 23%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 34.3%),硬资产占比 23%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.9%(经营现金流/市值 11.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.3%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 23%,资本开支/折旧 0.78 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 35.7 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 1%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -16% / -2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "苏博特:PE 比行业中位低 0.2倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.2个百分点。"]}}