{"F": {"ts_code": "603915.SH", "name": "国茂股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20190614", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.49, "pe_ttm": 33.8159, "pb": 2.3598, "dv_ttm": 1.6159, "total_mv": 900973.4925, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.3, 27.1, 26.7, 26.0, 21.1, 20.6], "rev_series": [21.8, 29.4, 27.0, 26.6, 25.9, 26.5], "np_series": [3.6, 4.6, 4.1, 4.0, 2.9, 2.4], "roe_series": [15.0, 16.8, 13.3, 11.5, 8.1, 6.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 28.2, "np_ttm": 2.7, "ocf_ttm": 4.1, "fcf_ttm": 3.7, "fcf_yield": 4.1, "ocf_yield": 4.6, "gm_median": 26.0, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -1.5, "npm_median": 14.8, "roe_median": 11.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.8, "fix_assets": 10.0, "goodwill_ratio": 1.2, "pb_calc": 2.36, "capex_dep": 0.31, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 31.2, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 53.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -0.6, "np_cagr3": -17.2, "rev_yoy": 13.3, "np_yoy": 29.4, "np_vol": 19.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.0, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 28.1, "fwd_pe2": 25.0, "fwd_g1": 20.0, "fwd_g2": 13.0, "peg": 2.16, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["减速机", 48.0], ["配件及其他", 1.0], ["配件", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 60.9, "ret_prev2_year": -28.1, "ret_ytd": -26.3, "ret_pivot": 77.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.7, "ret_60": -11.3, "ret_120": -16.9, "ret_250": -18.8, "mdd_250": -36.8, "vol_250": 40.8, "pos_52w": 70.8}, "S": {"duration": 57, "pricing": 51, "hard": 28, "bondness": 48}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 33.8 倍、股息率 1.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 26.0%、固定资产占比 18%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 26.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.1%(经营现金流/市值 4.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.0%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 0.31 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 33.8 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -11% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "国茂股份:PE 比行业中位低 16.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.0个百分点。"]}}