{"F": {"ts_code": "603909.SH", "name": "建发合诚", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "工程咨询服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "工程咨询服务Ⅲ", "ind": "工程咨询服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160628", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.84, "pe_ttm": 22.0756, "pb": 2.1894, "dv_ttm": 1.5244, "total_mv": 256502.3304, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.2, 30.1, 22.6, 8.9, 5.9, 5.3], "rev_series": [8.0, 8.4, 12.6, 39.5, 66.1, 76.4], "np_series": [0.5, 0.4, 0.6, 0.7, 1.0, 1.1], "roe_series": [5.7, 4.7, 6.2, 6.8, 9.2, 9.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 81.7, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 4.7, "fcf_ttm": 4.6, "fcf_yield": 18.0, "ocf_yield": 18.5, "gm_median": 8.9, "gm_std": 10.0, "gm_stab": -0.12, "gm_chg_2022": -10.7, "npm_median": 2.0, "roe_median": 6.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.2, "fix_assets": 0.8, "goodwill_ratio": 1.9, "pb_calc": 2.19, "capex_dep": 1.11, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 78.3, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 32.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 82.3, "np_cagr3": 24.4, "rev_yoy": 15.8, "np_yoy": 15.5, "np_vol": 21.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.5, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 20.1, "fwd_pe2": 17.7, "fwd_g1": 10.0, "fwd_g2": 13.0, "peg": 1.55, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["建筑施工", 48.0], ["工程施工业务", 48.0], ["工程咨询业务", 4.0], ["分部间抵销", -1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 25.3, "ret_prev2_year": -19.3, "ret_ytd": -11.7, "ret_pivot": 46.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.0, "ret_60": 3.8, "ret_120": -14.7, "ret_250": -9.2, "mdd_250": -42.5, "vol_250": 43.1, "pos_52w": 70.5}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 8, "hard": 2, "bondness": 21}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 22.1 倍、股息率 1.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 8.9%、固定资产占比 1%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 1%,毛利率近 5 年中位 8.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 18.0%(经营现金流/市值 18.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.9%,稳定度 -12%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 1.11 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.1 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -9%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 4% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程咨询服务Ⅱ」46 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 1.4% / 毛利率 33.2% / 固定资产占比 7% / 分红率 39%。", "建发合诚:PE 比行业中位低 18.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 24.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.5个百分点。"]}}