{"F": {"ts_code": "603906.SH", "name": "龙蟠科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "电池化学品", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170410", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.7, "pe_ttm": 44.4093, "pb": 2.8552, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1479379.253, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.8, 27.3, 17.6, -0.1, 9.3, 14.3], "rev_series": [19.1, 40.5, 140.7, 87.3, 76.7, 89.4], "np_series": [2.0, 3.5, 7.5, -12.3, -6.4, -1.7], "roe_series": [12.4, 17.9, 22.4, -30.2, -19.5, -5.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 125.1, "np_ttm": 3.3, "ocf_ttm": -21.1, "fcf_ttm": -33.5, "fcf_yield": -22.7, "ocf_yield": -14.3, "gm_median": 14.3, "gm_std": 9.1, "gm_stab": 0.37, "gm_chg_2022": -20.2, "npm_median": -1.7, "roe_median": -5.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.5, "fix_assets": 73.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.8, "pb_calc": 2.86, "capex_dep": 1.68, "interest_debt": 147.4, "debt_ebitda": 7.7, "debt_ratio": 76.2, "debt_mv": 99.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -14.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 98.7, "np_yoy": 593.8, "np_vol": 138.1, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.3, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 16.3, "fwd_pe2": 9.6, "fwd_g1": 173.0, "fwd_g2": 70.0, "peg": 0.23, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["销售LFP正极材料业务", 27.0], ["磷酸铁锂正极材料", 27.0], ["销售车用精细化学品业务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 93.1, "ret_prev2_year": -16.9, "ret_ytd": -6.5, "ret_pivot": 177.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.9, "ret_60": -20.0, "ret_120": 0.1, "ret_250": 25.9, "mdd_250": -48.9, "vol_250": 60.8, "pos_52w": 55.7}, "S": {"duration": 67, "pricing": 24, "hard": 44, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 3.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 44 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 76%,有息负债 147 亿,经营现金流/市值 -14.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 14.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -22.7%(经营现金流/市值 -14.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.3%,稳定度 37%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -20.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 1.68 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 44.4 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 26%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -20% / 0%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "龙蟠科技:PE 比行业中位高 8.6倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点。"]}}