{"F": {"ts_code": "603901.SH", "name": "永创智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "印刷包装机械", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150529", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.88, "pe_ttm": 28.1574, "pb": 1.587, "dv_ttm": 0.8098, "total_mv": 569770.3128, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.6, 32.1, 29.7, 29.9, 25.3, 27.3], "rev_series": [20.2, 27.1, 27.5, 31.5, 35.7, 39.9], "np_series": [1.7, 2.6, 2.7, 0.7, 0.2, 1.4], "roe_series": [11.5, 14.1, 11.6, 2.8, 0.6, 5.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 42.0, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 6.7, "fcf_ttm": 4.7, "fcf_yield": 8.3, "ocf_yield": 11.8, "gm_median": 29.7, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -3.0, "npm_median": 3.4, "roe_median": 5.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.2, "fix_assets": 17.7, "goodwill_ratio": 2.3, "pb_calc": 1.59, "capex_dep": 1.37, "interest_debt": 8.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 56.5, "debt_mv": 15.0, "payout": 47.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 13.2, "np_cagr3": -20.6, "rev_yoy": 11.3, "np_yoy": 79.9, "np_vol": 325.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.6, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 20.9, "fwd_pe2": 17.3, "fwd_g1": 35.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 1.0, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["包装设备及配件", 45.0], ["包装材料", 4.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 94.1, "ret_prev2_year": -38.0, "ret_ytd": -30.0, "ret_pivot": 76.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.5, "ret_60": -7.6, "ret_120": -23.8, "ret_250": -11.9, "mdd_250": -45.8, "vol_250": 40.6, "pos_52w": 62.2}, "S": {"duration": 51, "pricing": 52, "hard": 34, "bondness": 34}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 80%,PE TTM 28.2 倍 但前瞻 PE 20.9 倍,PEG 1.00。", "自由现金流 4.7 亿(正),次年预期增速 21%(5 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 21%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.3%(经营现金流/市值 11.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.7%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 1.37 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 28.2 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -8% / -24%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "永创智能:PE 比行业中位低 14.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.2个百分点。"]}}