{"F": {"ts_code": "603899.SH", "name": "晨光股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "文娱用品", "sw3": "文化用品", "ind": "文娱用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150127", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.16, "pe_ttm": 15.8395, "pb": 2.4319, "dv_ttm": 4.3178, "total_mv": 2120982.1464, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.4, 23.2, 19.4, 18.9, 18.9, 18.4], "rev_series": [131.4, 176.1, 200.0, 233.5, 242.3, 250.6], "np_series": [12.6, 15.2, 12.8, 15.3, 14.0, 13.1], "roe_series": [26.7, 26.7, 19.7, 20.8, 16.7, 14.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 255.7, "np_ttm": 13.4, "ocf_ttm": 20.9, "fcf_ttm": 17.7, "fcf_yield": 8.4, "ocf_yield": 9.8, "gm_median": 18.9, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -6.0, "npm_median": 6.8, "roe_median": 19.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.0, "fix_assets": 16.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 2.43, "capex_dep": 1.43, "interest_debt": 7.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 43.9, "debt_mv": 3.3, "payout": 66.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.8, "np_cagr3": 0.7, "rev_yoy": 4.7, "np_yoy": 5.1, "np_vol": 15.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 68.0, "earn_yield": 6.3, "consensus_n": 20, "fwd_pe": 14.8, "fwd_pe2": 13.4, "fwd_g1": 7.0, "fwd_g2": 11.0, "peg": 1.35, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["办公直销", 28.0], ["办公文具", 7.0], ["学生文具", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -7.8, "ret_prev2_year": -18.7, "ret_ytd": -11.1, "ret_pivot": -5.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.0, "ret_60": 4.5, "ret_120": -7.4, "ret_250": -26.2, "mdd_250": -32.8, "vol_250": 21.6, "pos_52w": 75.4}, "S": {"duration": 33, "pricing": 45, "hard": 16, "bondness": 62}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 66%、股息率 4.3%、营收 3 年复合 7.8%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.3 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 18.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.4%(经营现金流/市值 9.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.9%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 1.43 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 15.8 倍 粗算,约 68%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 22%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 4% / -7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「文娱用品」20 家中位:PE 47.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.8% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "晨光股份:PE 比行业中位低 31.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.5个百分点。"]}}