{"F": {"ts_code": "603897.SH", "name": "长城科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "线缆部件及其他", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20180410", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 29.81, "pe_ttm": 19.2349, "pb": 2.5892, "dv_ttm": 5.0319, "total_mv": 615384.8217, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [7.9, 5.9, 3.7, 4.3, 4.2, 4.7], "rev_series": [62.7, 107.3, 100.3, 110.8, 129.9, 125.9], "np_series": [1.7, 3.4, 1.4, 2.2, 2.4, 3.2], "roe_series": [8.9, 14.5, 5.0, 7.8, 8.9, 12.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 138.9, "np_ttm": 3.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": -0.4, "gm_median": 4.3, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -4.2, "npm_median": 2.0, "roe_median": 8.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.6, "fix_assets": 7.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.59, "capex_dep": 0.2, "interest_debt": 11.3, "debt_ebitda": 2.0, "debt_ratio": 67.0, "debt_mv": 18.4, "payout": 190.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.9, "np_cagr3": 32.3, "rev_yoy": 20.7, "np_yoy": 3.2, "np_vol": 52.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 26.8, "ret_prev2_year": 34.2, "ret_ytd": 14.7, "ret_pivot": 112.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.4, "ret_60": -17.7, "ret_120": -2.2, "ret_250": 15.5, "mdd_250": -60.3, "vol_250": 59.4, "pos_52w": 52.7}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 35, "hard": 17, "bondness": 83}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 190%、股息率 5.0%、营收 3 年复合 7.9%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 11%,毛利率近 5 年中位 4.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 -0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 4.3%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 0.20 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.2 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 16%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / -18% / -2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "长城科技:PE 比行业中位低 24.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 4.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 19.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.3个百分点。"]}}