{"F": {"ts_code": "603895.SH", "name": "天永智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20180122", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.73, "pe_ttm": 170.2064, "pb": 13.9097, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 288897.84, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.1, 22.1, 15.4, 17.1, 12.4, 18.1], "rev_series": [5.1, 5.0, 5.8, 5.9, 4.7, 5.3], "np_series": [0.1, 0.1, -1.3, -1.1, -1.8, 0.2], "roe_series": [2.1, 1.2, -23.6, -26.0, -65.4, 9.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.4, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": -0.1, "gm_median": 17.1, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -6.6, "npm_median": -24.6, "roe_median": -23.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.6, "fix_assets": 0.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 13.91, "capex_dep": 0.94, "interest_debt": 2.5, "debt_ebitda": 7.0, "debt_ratio": 88.3, "debt_mv": 8.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -2.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 1.4, "np_yoy": -15.6, "np_vol": 745.3, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["发动机智能装备及信息系统集成", 30.0], ["新能源汽车智能装备及信息系统集成", 15.0], ["锂电智能装备及信息系统集成", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 42.1, "ret_prev2_year": -20.4, "ret_ytd": -8.3, "ret_pivot": 68.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.3, "ret_60": -12.2, "ret_120": -7.1, "ret_250": -8.4, "mdd_250": -46.5, "vol_250": 49.6, "pos_52w": 66.2}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 41, "hard": 12, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 170 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 88%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 -0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.1%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 0.94 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 170.2 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / -12% / -7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "天永智能:PE 比行业中位高 127.9倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.4个百分点。"]}}