{"F": {"ts_code": "603890.SH", "name": "春秋电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171212", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.61, "pe_ttm": 37.4937, "pb": 3.0916, "dv_ttm": 0.9042, "total_mv": 988375.9643, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.0, 15.8, 16.9, 15.3, 14.7, 19.5], "rev_series": [35.8, 39.9, 38.4, 32.6, 39.5, 43.9], "np_series": [2.5, 3.1, 1.6, 0.3, 2.1, 2.8], "roe_series": [14.9, 14.0, 6.0, 1.0, 7.6, 9.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 46.7, "np_ttm": 2.6, "ocf_ttm": 4.9, "fcf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_yield": 3.2, "ocf_yield": 5.0, "gm_median": 15.8, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -1.1, "npm_median": 4.3, "roe_median": 7.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.3, "fix_assets": 20.2, "goodwill_ratio": 3.0, "pb_calc": 3.02, "capex_dep": 0.75, "interest_debt": 17.2, "debt_ebitda": 2.1, "debt_ratio": 51.2, "debt_mv": 17.4, "payout": 31.2, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 4.5, "np_cagr3": 21.9, "rev_yoy": 14.2, "np_yoy": -22.8, "np_vol": 286.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.7, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 21.9, "fwd_pe2": 17.5, "fwd_g1": 71.0, "fwd_g2": 25.0, "peg": 0.88, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 39.7, "ret_prev2_year": 2.7, "ret_ytd": 23.1, "ret_pivot": 125.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.5, "ret_60": -13.2, "ret_120": 37.7, "ret_250": 41.1, "mdd_250": -45.9, "vol_250": 63.7, "pos_52w": 63.0}, "S": {"duration": 61, "pricing": 46, "hard": 48, "bondness": 38}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 30%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 30%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.8%,稳定度 89%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.2%(经营现金流/市值 5.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.8%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 0.75 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 37.5 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 41%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -13% / 38%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "春秋电子:PE 比行业中位低 9.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.5个百分点。"]}}