{"F": {"ts_code": "603888.SH", "name": "新华网", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "数字媒体", "sw3": "门户网站", "ind": "数字媒体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20161028", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.56, "pe_ttm": 38.3221, "pb": 3.2112, "dv_ttm": 0.807, "total_mv": 1229103.072, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.7, 30.6, 31.0, 34.3, 38.1, 38.5], "rev_series": [14.3, 17.2, 19.4, 20.8, 21.4, 22.3], "np_series": [1.6, 2.1, 2.4, 2.7, 2.3, 3.3], "roe_series": [5.5, 6.8, 7.5, 8.1, 6.7, 9.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.5, "np_ttm": 3.2, "ocf_ttm": 5.1, "fcf_ttm": 4.5, "fcf_yield": 3.7, "ocf_yield": 4.2, "gm_median": 34.3, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -7.7, "npm_median": 12.5, "roe_median": 7.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.1, "fix_assets": 1.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.21, "capex_dep": 1.57, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 23.0, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 30.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.8, "np_cagr3": 10.8, "rev_yoy": 2.7, "np_yoy": -5.5, "np_vol": 18.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.9, "ret_prev2_year": -10.7, "ret_ytd": -5.5, "ret_pivot": 21.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.8, "ret_60": 2.1, "ret_120": -11.8, "ret_250": -10.7, "mdd_250": -43.8, "vol_250": 42.3, "pos_52w": 61.8}, "S": {"duration": 62, "pricing": 52, "hard": 3, "bondness": 31}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 38.3 倍、股息率 0.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 34.3%、固定资产占比 2%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 34.3%),硬资产占比 2%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.7%(经营现金流/市值 4.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.3%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 1.57 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 38.3 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 2% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「数字媒体」14 家中位:PE 85.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 44.0% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 55%。", "新华网:PE 比行业中位低 47.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点。"]}}