{"F": {"ts_code": "603886.SH", "name": "元祖股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "休闲食品", "sw3": "烘焙食品", "ind": "休闲食品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20161228", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.64, "pe_ttm": 40.3604, "pb": 2.2563, "dv_ttm": 4.7468, "total_mv": 303360.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [65.6, 62.1, 60.1, 62.1, 63.3, 62.0], "rev_series": [23.0, 25.8, 25.9, 26.6, 23.1, 20.8], "np_series": [3.0, 3.4, 2.7, 2.8, 2.5, 1.4], "roe_series": [20.1, 22.0, 16.6, 16.8, 15.0, 8.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.0, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.8, "fcf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_yield": 7.3, "ocf_yield": 9.2, "gm_median": 62.1, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -5.5, "npm_median": 10.4, "roe_median": 16.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.8, "fix_assets": 2.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.26, "capex_dep": 1.82, "interest_debt": 3.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 50.8, "debt_mv": 10.1, "payout": 96.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -7.0, "np_cagr3": -19.4, "rev_yoy": -9.7, "np_yoy": -5219.2, "np_vol": 20.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["销售商品", 48.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.3, "ret_prev2_year": -18.0, "ret_ytd": -5.5, "ret_pivot": 27.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 19.2, "ret_60": -3.4, "ret_120": 3.9, "ret_250": 1.4, "mdd_250": -29.5, "vol_250": 39.6, "pos_52w": 91.9}, "S": {"duration": 64, "pricing": 69, "hard": 14, "bondness": 85}, "label": "定价权·品牌", "tags": ["轻资产现金牛", "现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["没有硬资产(固定资产占比 9%)但有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 62.1%,稳定度 98%、ROE 近 5 年中位 16.6%。", "自由现金流/市值 7.3%,分红率 96%,分子跟得上通胀。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 62.1%),硬资产占比 9%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "分子跟得上通胀、久期不长,加息期抗跌;放水期弹性不如科技。属船票一侧的'非债券'部分。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.3%(经营现金流/市值 9.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 62.1%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 1.82 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 40.4 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 1%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 92%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 19% / -3% / 4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「休闲食品」22 家中位:PE 21.1 / 股息率 2.9% / 毛利率 29.5% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 67%。", "元祖股份:PE 比行业中位高 19.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 32.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 22.1个百分点。"]}}